LED lighting industry, you happy?

"Have you been happy?" In the past "11" Golden Week, this question is very hot. When Chinese writer Mo Yan won the Nobel Prize for Literature, CCTV’s “face to face” reporter asked Mo: Are you happy? Mo Yan replied: I don't know. Looking back at the LED lighting industry, if you are asked, are you happy? How can we answer? Wandering in the LED industry known as the Chaoyang industry, are you happy?

LED Lighting: Looks "Happiness"

In October, the incandescent lamp elimination ban was formally implemented, and the industrial and commercial departments will investigate and punish the illegal sale of incandescent lamps according to law. Various provinces and cities have also issued policies to support the LED lighting industry. The other major rival of LED lighting, energy-saving lamps have also been "swollen" due to mercury pollution, the EPA even proposed to prohibit the approval of the use of liquid mercury and manual mercury injection of fluorescent lamps for new construction, reconstruction, expansion projects. This paves the way for the popularity of LED lighting. However, the lack of quality inspection and label certification has become a major obstacle to LED's rapid entry into the market. Governments are making plans to prevent inferior LED products from entering the market. The government also needs to set up an independent testing laboratory to ensure the fairness of product testing.

1, China's LED lighting market scale of 3-5 billion within 2-3 years, from the prediction of many industry analysts, shows that without exception, the LED industry has bright prospects and unlimited potential. According to McKinsey's data, the global LED lighting market share will increase from 7% today to more than 40% from 2010 to 2016. By 2020, LED lighting market revenue will be close to 650 billion euros - in the global lighting market Occupies nearly 60% of the share. At present, China's semiconductor-only lighting product market has a scale of more than 20 billion yuan, which will rise to 50 billion to 60 billion yuan in two to three years.

According to a report released by the business think tank GBI Research, the Asia-Pacific region and its driver IC market will maintain growth during 2012-2016. This forecast is mainly based on: First, China, Taiwan and South Korea have a large number of manufacturers and are actively promoting Second, the application scope of LED products will continue to expand, and will be more widely used in the fields of tablet computers, smart phones, LCD TV backlighting and hybrid vehicles.

2. Policy support: Eliminating incandescent bulbs and minimum energy efficiency standards, and for the LED industry, countries such as Australia, Brazil, China, Malaysia, and South Africa have successively introduced measures to phase out incandescent lamps such as Nigeria and Canada to implement minimum energy efficiency standards. The incandescent lamp elimination policies, energy policies, or minimum energy efficiency standards that are implemented worldwide will be effective drivers for LED's rapid entry into the market. In addition, a series of LED product labeling and certification policies, promotional policies, tax policies, and lighting projects also help LED to quickly enter the market.

U.S. Bureau of Energy Develops New Fact Sheet for LED Lighting At present, the U.S. Department of Energy's LED team is developing a set of new LED lighting factual guidelines that describe the performance characteristics of standard LEDs to help consumers and designers clearly distinguish between traditional lamps and LED lamps. . In order to improve the reliability of data on LED lighting fact labels, the Energy Bureau hopes to retest the products. But in the end it decided to postpone the announcement of new regulations in order to avoid expensive testing costs for semiconductor lighting manufacturers. Prior to the semiconductor lighting market seminar in Pittsburgh, the United States discussed the guidelines that the Energy Agency plans to adjust the LED lighting factual program. Adjustments include retesting any modified fixtures after one year and sampling products from time to time to maintain product quality. (The manufacturer will bear the cost of these inspections.) However, the industry's response to the cost of retesting semiconductor lighting fixtures is too high, so the Energy Agency will reconsider the details of the adjustments and find other labels that can both reduce test costs and increase LED product data. Alternatives to reliability. The Energy Agency also said that the LED lighting fact program will be combined with semiconductor lighting performance testing. Both tests will maintain the original functionality, but the data will be combined into a single portal for individual product evaluation.

South Korea's Seoul proposed lighting 100% LEDization As early as 2006, South Korea established the target of “15/30 (30% penetration rate before 2015)” for LED lighting, and began to fully introduce LED lighting. Seoul City invested 23 billion won from 2007 to 2009, replacing 156,000 liters of lighting in transportation facilities and 38,000 liters of lighting in public institution buildings into LED products. Based on this policy in 2012, the Seoul Metropolitan Government To achieve 100% LED lighting, additional measures have been added. Under the support of these policies, the popularity of LED lighting in South Korea began to show signs of expansion.

China's financial subsidies for LED lighting in 2012-2013, the amount of Sacrifice doubled to nearly 1 billion yuan According to industry sources, the domestic government will provide a financial subsidy for LED from RMB 1-2200 million. Among them, the Ministry of Development and Reform Commission and other three ministries announced as a multi-year "2012-2013 financial subsidies for semiconductor lighting products", the scale of at least 1 billion yuan.

Recently, the Ministry of Science and Technology announced the "Circular on Organizing and Executing Promotion of Financial Subsidy for Semiconductor Lighting Products of the Year in 2012". "Notice" also announced the fiscal subsidies for the promotion of LED lighting products in 2012, as shown in the following table. According to observations, there are a total of 39 successful bidders, and the total number of successful bidder LED lighting products is 8.73 million.

LED lighting: happiness is so difficult 1, the global economic downturn + trade barriers + cost increases affected by the weak global economy and overcapacity, LED lighting market development is not as rapid as previously expected, coupled with the lighting terminal market is not Mature, most consumers are price-oriented, making the development of the LED lighting market slow down. According to the analysis of the relevant agencies, due to the negative impact of the sluggish global economy, the export demand of the LED industry has dropped significantly. The sluggish market in Europe and the United States hit the industry particularly hard. At present, Europe and the United States are the major markets for domestic LED exports. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, in 2011, the export sales of LED lamps in Guangdong exceeded 34 billion yuan, accounting for 1/4 of the total output value of LED lamps in Guangdong. Among them, exports to the United States and the European Union amounted to about 22 billion yuan, accounting for about 2/3 of the export value of LED lamps in Guangdong, and accounting for 15% of the total output value of LED lamps in Guangdong.

In addition to the economic downturn, the attitude of European and American countries to China’s resistance to LED products has also become increasingly evident. In the first half of the year, major exporting countries such as Europe and the United States also raised the threshold of LED products and erected high walls of technical trade barriers to protect domestic companies.

The WTO/TBT Center of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Quality Supervision reported recently that the United States, the European Union and other countries and regions have proposed higher and stricter regulations on energy-saving and environmental protection, eco-design, energy efficiency labeling, and testing and inspection of imported directional and LED lighting products. Claim. For the directional lamps and LED luminaire products of the country of entry, higher and more stringent requirements for energy-saving and environmental protection, eco-design, energy-efficiency labeling, test and inspection, performance, safety, size, weight, and shape are proposed. A European Union regulation puts forward energy-efficient requirements for directional lights and LED lights. The notified regulations require that only directional LED lamps and directional fluorescent lamps with an energy efficiency index of more than 0.2 can enter the EU market, 2.5 times more energy efficiency than before, which is 2.2 times that of China's national standards. It has been estimated that in accordance with the above energy efficiency requirements, the production cost of LED lamps will directly increase by more than 20%, and LED companies in Guangdong will have an additional cost of more than 2 billion yuan.

In the domestic market, the entire LED industry is also facing the current situation of increasing costs and reducing demand. Take the hottest LED chip above for example. In recent years, the production of LED chips has become more popular, and the price of sapphire substrates for LED production materials has soared from US$ 9 at the end of 2009 to US$ 35 at the end of 2010, before it began to gradually decline. According to the tracking data of SEMI, a well-known industry research institute, the price of LED sapphire substrates fell to a record low of US$8 in the first quarter of 2012 and is currently maintained at around US$10. The overall cost of construction is still high.

The current European debt crisis, trade barriers, and cost increase are all superimposed on one another. This is undoubtedly a serious test for the LED industry. Contrast this with the fact that the price of LED products does not rise and fall, how can LED lighting business owners feel happy?

2, LED corporate transcripts, net profit growth slowed down, even negative growth According to LEDInside statistics of TrendForce's LED industry research department, the total revenue of listed LED manufacturers in Taiwan in September 2012 was approximately NT$9.27 billion. Statistics track the global market. Overall, no matter whether TV, NB or Monitor's market terminal sales are in poor condition, it will naturally affect the LED backlight orders, making the overall LED output value in September slightly lower than that in August, and the overall revenue in September. Monthly decrease. However, some LED manufacturers benefited from the Chinese National Day holiday demand for the National Day holiday, TV backlight orders than originally expected to be strong. Analysis of the growth in demand in China mainly comes from the 6/1 energy-saving products benefiting people's policies. The demand for new aircraft types has increased, and preparations have been made for the distribution of goods from the Mid-Autumn Festival to the November holiday. Observing the sales status of the 11-day long-distance TV brand, domestic mainland brands TCL, Skyworth, Changhong, and Hisense, the annual growth rate of sales during the eleventh period was as high as 17%-22%, and the annual growth rate of sales during the period of Konka and Haiyiyi was only close to 10%. %. However, the overall performance is slightly better than expected, which helps China's brand inventory levels effectively go away.

On the whole, the pressure of oversupply in the LED industry continues to exist, so many manufacturers are still seeking long-term development direction. The development of the lighting market responds to regional market humanities and environmental needs, and began to show obvious market trends.

In September 2012, the revenue of listed LED packaging plants in Taiwan reached 5.35 billion yuan, which was flat. Everlight was returned by the sales of consumer electronics customers, and the poor performance of the traditional packaging Lamp. As a result, its revenue performance declined slightly, but its revenue rankings remained firmly at the top of the pack. As for Lite-On, the company's mass production of LED lighting components went smoothly. In September, LED lighting component revenue increased by more than 9 times compared to the same period in 2011, and the brand customer's demand for project orders was stable. The light source order visibility was up to the third quarter, plus IR IR. The LED market has developed steadily. In September, LED revenue grew moderately, reaching 1.19 billion yuan.

Looking at the mainland LED companies, only the first half of the performance of 20 domestic listed LED companies was investigated. More than half of the company’s operating revenues showed a negative growth trend, while 15 companies had a decline in operating profits. In addition, Qicheng's net profit has a significant downward trend. Although some of the company's operating income has increased, but the net profit growth is slow, and most of the company's net profit does not increase and fall, indicating that the production efficiency is still not optimistic. And at present, many domestic companies will maintain a conservative attitude towards the LED lighting market in the fourth quarter. It is expected that it will still be difficult to get rid of the market situation in the fourth quarter, and the revenue is equal to the third quarter. The imbalance of industry supply and demand may also affect the first half of next year. .

User voice:

@ Honest abbot China's LED industry to "electronic business death mode", a large number of companies get a lot of government subsidies, and then a lot of market prices down, whether it is chips or LED lamp beads, the price has been sold more than the cost It's even lower, but everyone expects one thing. Others will fall first. They only have one conviction. That is to survive. Or the good government that Xu Xiaonian said to keep its own share! ! !

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ An honest abbot talked to a company boss at night. All that is needed is cash flow and the high speed of the operation of the machines. The Bank of Heaven has always been the icing on the cake and never sent in the snow. Maybe only the local government can save them. Too much, but he just wanted to say that the most sorry thing was the brothers who were playing with him.