At the close of trading yesterday, the home appliance sector continued to underperform the broader market. Vantage, Qingdao Haier, Little Swan A and Midea Group all fell by more than 2%. In the past two months or so, Little Swan A has fallen by more than 30%, and Midea Group has also fallen by about 24%. Some analysts believe that the continued adjustment of the home appliance sector is on the one hand related to the overall callback of big consumption. On the other hand, the slowdown in industry sales growth and the division of institutions have also put greater pressure on the upward trend of stock prices.

Sales growth of my country's home appliance industry slows down, and institutions have significantly reduced their positions

Signs of slowing sales appear

There are many sales channels for home appliances, such as supermarket retail, offline specialty stores, and online specialty or direct sales. But the latest data shows that although the market has good expectations for the home appliance industry, signs of slowing sales growth have already appeared. Among them, the negative growth of retail channels is the most obvious. Some home appliance companies also bluntly said that some sub-sectors are facing greater challenges.

The retail market sales have changed a lot. According to the monitoring data of the China National Commercial Information Center, in July 2018, the retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises across the country fell by 3.9% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was 8.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In terms of categories, the retail sales of household appliances dropped by 9.9% year-on-year, an increase of 13.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Among the five categories of consumer goods, the range of change is the largest.

Data provided by Caitong Securities analyst Hong Jiran shows that in July this year, online air-conditioning sales fell 16% year-on-year. If the data distortion caused by the misalignment of the Spring Festival peak in February is excluded, this is the first online year-on-year decline in recent years.

It seems to have been reflected in the financial reports of listed companies. According to the latest interim report of Little Swan, the company achieved operating income of 12.05 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 14.09%, the lowest growth rate in the past six years, and a slowdown of 18.26 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

In 2017, the home appliance sector represented by Midea Group, Gree Electric, Supor, and Little Swan A became a beautiful landscape of the stock market. In the first half of this year, we also enjoyed the bonus of big consumption upgrades. However, since mid-June, the home appliance sector has continued to adjust, and many individual stocks have adjusted more than 20%. Some analysts believe that although the fundamentals of the home appliance sector are still stable and the leading stocks are always strong, whether they can rebound after the continued decline depends on the change in the risk appetite of the entire A-share market.

As of yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, while the home appliance sector fell 0.35%. Leading stocks such as Supor, Vantage, Qingdao Haier, Little Swan A and Midea Group all fell more than 20%. Gree Electric fell by 0.87%, and the kitchen appliance leader Boss Appliance fell by 0.27%. Relatively speaking, TCL Group, Sichuan Changhong and Hisense Appliances in the field of black electricity closed briskly.

Institutions lighten up significantly

It is worth noting that in the two months or so since mid-June this year, the home appliance sector has continued to adjust. Among them, Vantage shares fell 37.69%, Little Swan A fell 37.21%, Hisense Kelon fell 32.05%, and Boss Electronics also fell 28.98 %. Midea, Haier, Gree, etc. have not been spared, all of which have fallen by more than 20% over the same period.

Some analysts pointed out that the recent weak trend of the home appliance sector is due to the impact of major consumption upgrades and changes in sales performance. On the other hand, the loosening of institutional groups has also led to a decline in the ability to accept funds.

According to the reporter's preliminary statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the public offering funds that were still held in the second quarter of this year had obvious differences in the operation of the home appliance sector. In the second quarter of this year, Ru Midea Group gained holdings of funds such as Changxin Domestic Demand, Guangfa Xinyi, Bo Shi Yufu, CEIBS Growth, and China Merchants MSCI. However, it was also reduced by 8 funds under China Universal Asset Management. Among them, China Universal Asset Growth Focus Round Fund reduced its holdings by 3.5 million shares, and the Blue Chip Steady and Flexible Allocation Fund reduced its holdings by 2.7 million shares.

"From the perspective of shareholding, there has not been a substantial reduction in the home appliance sector, but compared with last year and the first quarter of this year, the institutional grouping has been significantly loosened. In addition, if there is a big increase, if there is a disagreement, the pressure on the stock price of the institution to lighten up will be It's relatively large." A fund source in Shenzhen told an all-media reporter of the Guangzhou Daily. At present, whether the home appliance sector can rebound and regain lost ground mainly depends on market risk appetite.

Air-conditioning sales are not reliable

Guangzhou Daily (all-media reporter Zhao Fangyuan) This summer, the continuous high temperature weather in many parts of our country has once again "blow out" the demand for air-conditioning for "seeing the sky and eating". Industry insiders believe that extreme weather is often short-lived, and this year's air-conditioning inventory is very high, and the air-conditioning terminal retail market is not as optimistic as expected.

Hot weather boosts sales of air conditioners in some regions

Since July, high temperatures have continued in many parts of our country, especially in many cities in the north.

Consumers in a third-tier city in northern China told reporters that buying air conditioners “had to bow to the sudden high temperature”.

Industry observer Hong Shibin told Guangzhou Daily all-media reporters: "Air conditioners are a product that'sees the sky and eats', especially in North China and Northeast China. The temperature difference between day and night in summer was relatively large. Many households may not need to use air conditioners. This year, because of the hot weather. This has caused some areas in the north to start installing air conditioners on a large scale." According to industry observer Liu Buchen, the inventory of air conditioners this year is very high. The reason for this result is that manufacturers are pressing harder on goods, and the air conditioner terminal retail market is not as optimistic as expected.

The pull of extreme weather is not durable

The reporter noticed that the current number of air-conditioners in first- and second-tier cities is relatively saturated, and new air-conditioning sales are mainly driven by real estate sales and the replacement of old air-conditioners. As first- and second-tier cities are obviously affected by real estate, market growth is sluggish. The difference is that the number of air conditioners in third- and fourth-tier cities is relatively low, and there is still room for demand.

Industry observer Liu Buchen believes that extreme weather will temporarily pull air-conditioning sales, but this pull is not durable.

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