CICC believes that the Han's laser [21.68 2.02%] LED packaging business is in the integration investment period this year, and it is expected to gradually contribute profits next year.

Recently, CICC researched Shenzhen Dazu Laser Technology Co., Ltd.

CICC believes that the business inflection point of the Han family laser appears, and the future high growth path is clear. On the one hand, the large group of lasers are thick and thin, and high-end equipment is gradually breaking through (high-power laser processing equipment, PCB complete sets of equipment, ultraviolet lasers, green lasers, etc.), and the product line is gradually extended (photovoltaic, LED equipment); on the other hand, the national "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" strategy Sexual emerging industry planning has promoted technological advancement and industrial upgrading, leading to accelerated demand in the downstream.

CICC believes that under the background of the government's promotion of the “12th Five-Year Plan” strategic emerging industry planning and industrial upgrading, Dazu Laser's main business laser processing equipment, PCB equipment, LED packaging and photovoltaic equipment have broad prospects.

As a result, we slightly raised the revenue forecast of the traditional business of the Dazu laser and included the profit contribution of the photovoltaic equipment. We raised the 2011 profit forecast of Dazu Laser to 41% to 0.75 yuan per share (not considering the company's possible acquisition of the equity of the subsidiary). Non-recurring income).

Recently, the big family laser stock price strengthened, CICC reiterated its "recommended" investment rating, and raised the 12-month target price to 26.5 yuan / share (based on 2011 35 times price-earnings ratio).

Yesterday, the Han family laser closed up 2.02%, closing at 21.68 yuan / share.

Traditional business grows steadily

CICC believes that the traditional low-power laser processing equipment of Dazu Laser will continue to grow steadily; high-power laser processing equipment has begun to make profits, and the future import substitution space is broad.

As a traditional business of Han's laser, its low-power laser marking machine was mainly based on low-end manufacturing such as clothing and leather. After the successful transformation and transformation of Dazu Laser, the downstream is mainly based on emerging industries such as consumer electronics.

Apple's iPhone and other products have set off a wave of consumer electronics intelligence. Compared with previous products, the new generation of electronic products has more complicated processing technology, more synthetic metal parts, and more sophisticated and complex internal electronic components. The use of laser processing equipment per unit (such as marking, welding equipment, etc.) has increased significantly, which will drive the upgrade and upgrade of equipment throughout the industry chain. Therefore, we expect that low-power laser processing equipment will maintain an annual growth rate of around 30% in the future.

In addition, the high-power laser cutting machine that has been cultivated by Han's laser for many years has become increasingly mature and has become a domestic leader. It is expected to turn a profit this year. High-power laser cutting machine is used for the cutting of sheet metal, mainly used in aviation, aerospace, high-end machinery and other industries. At present, the domestic market of this product is still dominated by imported products, and the future import substitution space is broad.

In addition, Han's laser high-power laser welding equipment is also steadily advancing, and has received orders in small quantities. This product is widely used in the welding processing of automobile, machinery and other production lines, and is currently dominated by imported products. We believe that the long-term import substitution space of Han's laser high-power laser processing equipment is a potential growth point in the future.

PCB business breakthrough bottleneck

PCB (printed circuit board) is the basic component of electronic products. The general trend of the global PCB industry shifting to China has begun. At present, China has occupied 30% of the global PCB industry. Therefore, the annual market demand for PCB production equipment in China is as high as 20 billion yuan, but most of the products are imported, except for the lowest-end products such as mechanical drilling machines.

Dazu Laser began to enter the PCB equipment industry in 2002, but the products have been mainly based on low-margin mechanical drilling machines, and customers are mainly low-end small factories. At present, the Dazu laser product line is developing into a complete set of equipment such as laser drilling machine, testing equipment and molding equipment, and the customer structure is also extended to mainstream manufacturers.

Recently, the large-scale orders of about 170 million yuan announced by the Han's laser indicate that the product supply capacity of the company has been significantly improved, and the products have been recognized by mainstream manufacturers.

CICC believes that the important bottleneck of the Han's laser PCB equipment business has been broken, the operating inflection point has been realized, the import substitution process has begun, and the large-scale orders that continue in the future can be expected. We expect Dahe Laser to contribute revenues of 410 million yuan, 680 million yuan and 970 million yuan respectively in 2010-2012.

LED business mass production next year

Han's laser has been involved in three aspects of LED packaging, packaging equipment and terminal product applications, and has a scale advantage. Han's laser has begun mass production in LED equipment, such as solid crystal equipment, LED color separation test equipment, and LED loading equipment. The most difficult technical difficulty in the LED business is that the wire bonding machine that can only be produced by the Dazu Laser in China is expected to be mass-produced next year. At that time, Dazu Laser will have the supply capacity of a complete set of LED packaging equipment, especially the wire bonding machine has a wide import substitution space.

Through analysis, CICC expects LED packaging equipment to contribute RMB 80 million, RMB 250 million and RMB 400 million respectively to Dazu Laser in 2010-2012.

In addition, the LED packaging business of Dazu Laser is in the integration investment period this year, and it is expected to contribute profits gradually next year.

Photovoltaic equipment has sprung up

In addition, it is worth mentioning that the Han nationality laser photovoltaic equipment has sprung up and is expected to become a new growth pole.

At the beginning of this year, Dazu Laser hired a core R&D team from a leading domestic PV equipment R&D organization and established a photovoltaic equipment subsidiary. We believe that Han's laser is expected to quickly become one of the major PV equipment suppliers in China.

At present, the main product diffusion furnace and PECVD furnace are the core equipment of the photovoltaic cell production line, with a total price of about 10 million yuan/set, accounting for 25% to 35% of the value of a 25MW photovoltaic cell production line. It is expected that the domestic market scale of these two products will be large. About 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion yuan, domestic competitors only have a few companies such as Seven Star Electronics [105.02 -2.85%] and China National Electric Corporation.

According to CICC, due to the strong strength of the Dazu laser R&D team, the possibility of extending to other PV equipment will not be ruled out in the future, and the product line will be more abundant. It is estimated that the revenue of Dazu laser photovoltaic equipment will reach 700 million yuan and 1 billion respectively in 2011-2012. yuan. And the gross profit margin of these two products is relatively high. We reasonably assume that the net profit margin will reach 20%. Only the photovoltaic equipment business of Dazu Laser will contribute 0.2 yuan per share in 2011.

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