From the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016, capital began to rush into the VR field, and it was fierce. The word VR became a cash cow. How hot is VR? Judging from the data of the major foundries in Shenzhen, VR is undoubtedly still on the cusp.

Although from the small cottage to BAT, they are all starting with VR, but many people still believe that the VR concept is more than actual, the industry is coming, but at least in the near future, virtual reality technology is not enough to support mass consumption. market. Is this really the case?

In August, the Institute of Electronic Science and Technology Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China published the "2016 Global Virtual Reality Industry Research Report", which pointed out five major problems in the VR industry: serious screen graininess, stun caused by screen delay, and user experience. Full coverage; VR equipment has too high performance requirements for supporting terminals, which limits the scale of VR technology; VR does not have a unified standard, making content adaptation products difficult; and before a large number of key technical problems have been broken, the industry is over-promoted, overdraft The vitality.

Therefore, the industry generally began to believe that VR investment in the explosive growth in 2016, while creating a large number of bubbles. This roller coaster year, from the mass media advocated "VR first year", quickly turned into a "VR winter" that many media sang.

Virtual reality device

VR has only begun to be used in various fields such as entertainment, education, and medical care. VR is a technology that benefits all aspects of society. It is true that video and game applications are just a booster for promotion technology, but in fact, in ordinary users. The most well-known entertainment field, the basic dizziness problem has not been solved yet, and the explosion application is difficult to appear.

On the one hand, it is the crazy chase of capital, and on the other hand, it is the dilemma of not producing results, not to mention the most fundamental profit problem.

VR does not have "cold winter" but "virtual fire is too busy"

Most consumers feel that VR is still a floating concept, far from their own lives. An entrepreneur who provided acoustic technology services to hardware manufacturers told reporters that in Shenzhen, the price of helmets, all-in-ones and other equipment has been so low that the price seems to be no longer the threshold for hardware popularization. .

How to realize it has also become a major problem that plagues the industry. "Now the main way of realizing is the offline experience store, but we spend a lot of money to buy expensive equipment, the content can not keep up, the profitability is limited." Li He, the business manager of Beijing Easy View Technology Co., Ltd. told the Science Daily reporter. For these reasons, capital seems to be starting to be cautious after the frenzy.

So, is VR really entering the "winter"? According to Digi-Capital's latest market research report, all US investment growth in the VR/AR market has not slowed down and stopped.

The data supporting this conclusion is: In the third quarter just ended, more than $500 million in investments were made to VR/AR startups. In the past 12 months, the US virtual (enhanced) real estate investment has reached a record of 2.3 billion US dollars. This is the ninth quarter of the continuous growth of the VR investment and financing market. In these nine consecutive quarters, the average investment amounted to $9.3 million.

In Luo Xian's view, as opposed to the global industry's "cold winter", VR still has some "virtual fires." He analyzed that the so-called VR "cold winter" is first related to the big environment: the current global economy is in a downturn, consumption energy is insufficient, investment is shrinking further, and the physical industry will naturally be affected. “In addition, from the fourth quarter of last year to the first half of this year, the VR boom scene jointly promoted by VCs, listed companies, entrepreneurs, and the media has allowed a large number of companies without core technologies and commercial barriers to join.”

Wang Shengjiang, the founder of Hongtai Innovation Space, does not agree with the statement that capital is “cold winter”. The term "capital 'cold winter' is relative to last year's investment bubble, and the VR industry is also like this. There is an investment bubble in the blink of an eye." He said that what is missing now is a good project, if an entrepreneur says it is now capital. "Winter" can only show that he has no confidence in himself. No good project will exit the industry because of the so-called capital "cold winter".

The core technologies involved in virtual reality are basically mature.

Virtual reality involves many technical fields, while display, chip and interactive tracking are three key technical areas, with active innovation and rapid progress.

In the new display field, high-resolution display and flexible display represented by technologies such as AMOLED and light field display have become the development trend of VR/AR. Compared with the traditional LCD display, the high-performance AMOLED display features fast response, low weight, low power consumption, anti-blue light, and obvious cost reduction. In addition, the high-performance AMOLED display can greatly improve the portability of virtual reality products while reducing dizziness, energy consumption, cost, and health risks. Since the flexible AMOLED has practical significance in terms of virtual reality and weight reduction and portability, it is expected to become an important development direction in the future.

In the chip field, high-performance GPUs and 5Gs have become the development trend of virtual reality computing processing and wireless communication. Because VR has high requirements for real-time modeling and rendering capabilities in high-definition scenes, high-performance GPUs are the core embodiment of computing power in virtual reality. At present, international manufacturers such as NVIDIA, AMD, imaginaTIon, Qualcomm and ARM have been deployed in the virtual reality field, and the SDK is frequently deployed to improve the performance of the GPU in the virtual reality field. For wireless transmission, high-resolution, full-view display brings high immersion to virtual reality, and it also poses a challenge to data transmission. At present, virtual reality devices mainly transmit data by means of wired. With the advent of 5G, the performance "bottleneck" of ultra-high resolution, full-view, 3D, low-latency, etc. required for virtual reality content is expected to be solved to a large extent.

In the field of interactive tracking, sensor fusion and 3D registration modeling have become the development trend. Multi-sensor information fusion is actually a functional simulation of the complex problem of human brain synthesis. Compared with single sensor, it mainly uses multi-sensor information fusion technology to solve problems such as detection, tracking and target recognition, enhances the reliability and accuracy of collected data, and expands the spatial coverage of data collection. It is the development focus of data acquisition technology. Currently, Intel's Realsense, Microsoft's Hololens, and Google's Project Tango are based on a series of cameras, sensors, and chips that can be used to model the environment around the user in real time, adding human-like perceptions of space and motion to virtual reality devices. ability.

Companies with core technical barriers are more likely to get money

Although China's VR is still a small stage of thunder and heavy rain, capital has expressed great interest in the Chinese market.

In the VR field, California-based venture capital firm OutpostCapital said that in other countries such as the United States, it is difficult for people to experience VR technology. Only for $1,000 (about RMB 6,700) can they reach high-end VR products. This means that American consumers lack access to the industry in a way that is clear and in line with their level of consumption.

In China, the infrastructure that allows consumers to “try” is relatively complete. Whether it's a playground, a mall or an offline experience store across the country, you can experience the best VR device, HTCVive. With just a few dollars, you can experience VR in more than 100,000 Internet cafes.

“Although the VR industry financing rate has slowed down in the second half of this year, it still has a large increase compared with last year. Compared with other industries, the VR industry's financing scale and quantity are leading other industries.” Luo Xian analysis, there are Companies with core technical barriers, clear business models, and the ability to support themselves are more likely to get money.

The Digi-Capital report shows that in terms of projects, video and solution/service solutions, as well as VR+ and advertising, are ranked high in the investment market, as well as early investment in popular game and application projects, currently looking at profitability. Not pleased. Analysts believe that this cannot be said that there is no future for VR games and applications, but that the mass market thresholds in these two fields are higher, the user base is small, and the liquidity is poor.

"If customers have a good experience, there may be some epoch-making products and companies in the fields of entertainment, medical care, education, etc." Wang Shengjiang said.

summary

Although the development of virtual reality is still in its infancy, the current development is fast enough. As long as the hardware breaks through the existing technology threshold, the development of VR can not only flow on the surface, but also high-quality content. Give time to new things, patience to VR, the future of VR is beautiful, and now, everything is just beginning.

(PS: This article refers to 36æ°ª, China Information Industry Network, Science and Technology Daily, etc.)

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