Policy expires, appliance prices may rise

According to the agency's forecast, the energy-saving appliance market is expected to drive sales of energy-saving appliances worth more than RMB 250 billion at the end of the policy as of the end of May. The government has successively awarded the three national financial subsidy policies of "home appliances to the countryside," "replacement of old people", and "energy-saving benefits to the people" to the home appliance industry in order to boost domestic demand. However, for home appliance companies, this kind of "fighting chicken blood" type of stimulus policy only results in the early release of some demands.

Consumers are quite appreciative of home appliances energy-saving subsidies. A media survey found that during the energy-saving subsidies for home appliances, nearly 40% of households purchased energy-saving appliances because of their policies; 40% of purchasers said they purchased air-conditioners; over half of respondents believe that after the energy-saving subsidy policy for household appliances ends, energy-saving appliances will increase. Over 80% of respondents hope that the energy-saving subsidies for home appliances can continue to be promoted.

Market fears policy dependence

To expand domestic demand, stimulate green consumption and promote energy conservation and emission reduction. In June 2012, the State Council decided to use financial subsidies to invest 26.5 billion yuan in fiscal subsidies for energy-saving appliances, promote air-conditioners, flat-panel TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, and water heaters. The purchase of energy-saving appliances could be subsidized up to 600 yuan. Yuan, the promotion period is tentatively set for one year. Although the implementation time is only one year, but compared to the previous home appliances to the countryside policy, the energy subsidies face the consumers, energy-saving subsidies to stimulate the effect of consumption.

As of the 29th, data from third-party statistical agencies showed that the 2012 energy-saving subsidies led to the promotion of more than 32.7 million high-efficiency and energy-saving appliances, stimulating consumer spending of over 115.4 billion yuan. In February of this year, domestic white goods accounted for 40%-50% of the total. The product is the successful energy-saving subsidies product, and the ratio of black power is as high as 90%. It is expected that by the end of May the policy will drive the sales of more than 250 billion yuan of energy-saving appliances.

Energy-saving subsidies provide consumers with a convenient policy, but also bring many benefits for the company, of which the impact on the color TV industry is particularly evident. The energy-saving subsidies resulted in an average price reduction of 115 yuan for color TV sets and a 5% contribution to terminal prices. As a result, the market has grown rapidly in volume, resulting in the completion of color TV set companies and allowing some TV panel companies to quickly enter full production.

However, the white goods companies such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines have high costs for improving energy efficiency, and their enthusiasm is not as good as that of the color TV industry. Their profitability is also smaller than that of the color TV industry. In addition, some small and medium-sized white-electricity companies continue to use their subsidy policies to disrupt the rhythm of the big companies' clean-up of the market, and allow companies to have a policy-dependent inertia that affects the normal development of the market. Therefore, many companies still oppose the attitude of continuation of energy-saving policies, and the policy relies on fears of buried sequelae.

Price or increase

Zhongkang predicted that the impact of the policy subsidy launch in the second half of 2013 will enter a deep adjustment period, which will cause disruption of industry demand and competitive landscape in the short term. The third quarter may return to a low point and gradually stabilize from the fourth quarter. .

In fact, as the policy is about to expire, businesses in the market have already responded. Since May, whether it is color TVs, air conditioners, refrigerators and other manufacturers, or Suning, Gome and other businesses, have launched a variety of promotional activities, in order to catch energy subsidies policy, the "last train" have played. At present, the government has no intention of introducing a renewal policy, and some consumers have also advanced the purchase plan in order to fight for the “last train” to catch up with subsidies. Affected by the “last train” effect, some home appliance stores are extremely popular, especially sales of energy-saving appliances have increased rapidly, at least 2-3 times more than before, and the number of consumers who handle energy-saving subsidies in supermarkets in some cities even exceeds the number of weekdays. To 4 times. For example, Wuhan Gome's sales figures show that sales in May were boosted by nearly 100% year-on-year, driven by the effect of last-subsidy subsidies; data from Wuhan Suning indicated that sales growth in the last week of May was around 200%.

After the exit of the policy is clear, the home appliance market in May will be warmer again due to the “last train” effect. The essence of the energy saving subsidy policy is to advance the demand for overdrafts in the market. Therefore, the market will inevitably fall into a depression during the 3-6 months after the subsidy policy is withdrawn. The market entered a period of deep adjustment. However, people in the industry also pointed out that most companies have already prepared for the situation that the policy does not continue. For example, Midea's company is currently implementing a brand-new product channel layout for entering the sales season for air conditioners and refrigerators. Its executives believe that after exiting from the policy, it will not have a big impact on the energy efficiency structure of existing products. Enterprises will increase the promotion of energy-saving products, bring their price levels closer to those of non-energy-saving products, and allow the withdrawal of the subsidy policy at the price. There is no obvious effect on it.

A number of people in the industry said that manufacturers are unlikely to pay for themselves to pay for this part of the state subsidies, so to say that buying more energy-saving appliances is almost a foregone conclusion.

How to fill the policy vacuum?

In the industry analysis, although energy-saving subsidies have the effect of stimulating consumption, this policy only releases consumption in advance and does not create consumption. Under the background of overcapacity, it may cause some enterprises to expand production capacity due to policies, and policy execution ceases. Among them. However, the introduction of the policy has brought good news to consumers and some small and medium-sized enterprises. According to a recent media survey, 83.4% of netizens support the continuation of energy-saving subsidies, and 66.7% of netizens believe that energy-saving subsidies can actually stimulate household appliances. Product consumption. Although the central government explicitly stated that the subsidy policy for energy-saving appliances will not be continued, local governments have already brewed the "local version" of energy-saving subsidies.

The existence of energy-saving subsidy policies for home appliances has freed up space for certain regional small and medium-sized manufacturers. However, with the formal withdrawal of the subsidy policy, it will help to eliminate backward production capacity in the industry and further optimize the industry structure. The short-term performance of the leading companies may be affected, but the long-term competition pattern has been strengthened. Through the adjustment and reflection of the company’s own strength, the market share and competitiveness will be optimized to ensure that the market is on track. The industry generally believes that the exit of the energy-saving subsidies policy will not cause excessive impact on the company. The internal management and operation of the enterprise is the crux of the problem. The "gospel" of energy-saving subsidies has misled some companies in their financial arrangements and blindly put funds into production, ignoring R&D that can enhance the competitiveness of the brand and suffering from "subsidy dependency syndrome." Therefore, how to stimulate consumption and cultivate new potential for consumption requires that home appliance companies increase the competitiveness of their brands, increase brand core technology, and develop newer technology projects. This will be a profitable point of consumption for the new round of market competition, thus stimulating household appliance consumption and transformation. upgrade.

Industry observer Liang Zhenpeng believes that in the post-policy era, the market should adjust its industrial structure through its “invisible hand” and create a virtuous circle of development mechanisms. Indeed, the expansion of consumption and consumption should be emphasized in order to realize the sustainable development of consumption.