When it comes to the need to pay for investment management costs, the wise choice for wealth management investors should be to clearly understand what you are buying into your wealth management product. With the help of an investment advisor, you usually expect to get alpha, or a high yield that exceeds the rules of the market, but ignore the beta coefficient (an index that measures portfolio risk in portfolio investment).

In fact, more and more research shows that the so-called active management of investment portfolios by investment consultants may not be the result of individual investors. He once served as the operational director of the Galaxy Securities Fund Research Institute. Now, Ma Yongbiao, financial advisor of Rubik's Cube, said, “From the large and small customers I’ve contacted, I’ve done a statistic. The probability of small customers losing money is as high as 70% to 80%. This is a very cruel reality.” Ma Yongyong pointed out that although small clients pay attention to information and pay attention to investment proposals of fund companies, he does not know how to purchase products to reduce risks and stop losses in time, resulting in losses.

“Making wrong decisions under incomplete information support is a common problem among small customers.” Joe Jansen, a data visualization expert at Better Thanh, a foreign intelligence consultant, said that a good investment consultant should be able to formulate The overall planning tool. This is a very full ideal, then what is the reality?

Recently, the United States's first-generation intelligent search engine Betterment announced its historical performance of the portfolio from the beginning of January 2004 to June 2016, and combined with the data of the independent investment consulting company Asset Risk to evaluate the average return of investors. Among them, the performance of more than 30,500 Betterment portfolios was 88% better than that of human investment management. According to explanations, these historical performance data that reflect Betterment's portfolio are based on ETFs, or back-tested against the stop-loss strategy of the index of large assets tracked in the Betterment IRA (individual retirement account) portfolio. All yields include Betterment service charges and ETF transaction fees. Another indicator - the average individual investor return rate is taken from the APCI data.

Specifically, Betterment created a web widget that allows users to directly query Betterment’s portfolio returns and risk rates over a specific period of the past decade. For example, during the period from January 2016 to June 2016, Betterment’s 70% investment portfolio in stocks earned cumulative earnings of 7.8%, with the highest monthly return of 5.9% and an annualized rate of return of 19.6%, while during the same period, the The 500 income is 1.72% and the annualized income is 3.47%. At the same time, the average individual investor’s stock risk rate was 4.4%, which was at a low level. Compared with a group of data, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 19.41% over the same period, and the stock-based Sunshine Private Equity Index fell 1.83%.

This is a very good portfolio performance. Everyone must make a profit. In fact, in the long term, investors have no chance to make any profit. We are not aware of this. However, in the more than ten-year comparison of the yields and risk ratios, we carefully observed that we can find that intelligent investment is not perfect and it is worth investors’ attention. The place - the ability to adapt is not strong, the active learning ability of machine learning can not be said to break through human limitations for risk management.

Overall, Betterment's portfolio risk and earnings performance fluctuations are roughly in line with market economic trends. First, from January 2006 to December 2006, under the portfolio of 70% stocks + 30% securities, Betterment’s cumulative yield was 12.2%.

Afterwards, from January 2007 to December 2007, the cumulative return rate of the portfolio was 5.7%, and the risk rate also decreased.

From January 2008 to December 2008, the cumulative rate of return of the portfolio was -26.1%.

We all know that since the summer of 2007, the United States has experienced a subprime mortgage crisis that engulfed the world due to the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage institutions, forced closure of investment funds, and severe volatility in the stock market. The stock is still a high-liquidity financial management product, and this time, smart investment has not played the role of risk prediction and control that is considered to have.

In 2010, financial investment behaviors based on smart investment advice and management were also not spared under the impact of financial markets. In May 2010, the average price index of the Dow Jones industrial stocks tumbled about 1,000 points in 20 minutes, a drop of 9%, and the market called it a “lightning crash.” During this period, the 2009 return rate remained at 37% of the portfolio. By the first half of 2010, it immediately fell to negative growth. The mechanism for timely stop loss did not have much effect .

Similarly, Betterment’s performance in the first half of this year outperformed the standard 500 earnings. For example, from May 2016 to June 2016, the yield once fell to 0.7%, from June 2015 to December 2015. This is -3.4%. From June 2015 to June 2016, the average was 0.3%.

We know that during the first half of the year, "black swan" incidents such as terrorist attacks occurred from time to time. Under the strong market impact, the extent to which machine-learning functions of intelligent investment advice can promptly give users the opportunity to make post-investment management proposals What?

It should be pointed out that the proportion of investment in stocks and securities also shows a similar pattern of fluctuations under adjustments, such as reducing the proportion of stocks. Of course, the specific rate of return will vary.

Insiders analysis said that this weak ability to cope with risk means that the active learning ability of artificial intelligence has not yet been able to break the limitations of human management, let alone human intervention accounted for relatively heavy reliance on big data mining for asset allocation and strategy recommendations. . Take Betterment as an example here.

According to data from market research firm CB Insights, as of June 2016, the AI ​​industry completed more than 200 venture financing transactions with a transaction volume of US$1.5 billion, making 2016 a record year. It has to be said that whether it is true AI or just a simple intelligent solution, AI is naturally sought after in the financial industry.

According to foreign media Insight, what we need to point out is that the so-called AI technology of many digital financial services today is not true AI, and they do not really use AI to create much value for their customers. Many “new” credit decision-making processes that rely on data and models are not so revolutionary, not to mention only evolution.

However, such technologies are like the driverless cars liberating humans. They have the potential in the long run. It is just a solution to the semantic understanding. In the future, we may be able to calculate how even a small detail of life will affect the stock price.

In the second half of the following year, the market will continue to face a variety of challenges, such as whether the Fed raises interest rates, the final outcome of the U.S. elections, the subsequent effects of U.K. Brexit, the spread of terrorism, and the turmoil in Northeast Asia caused by "Sad's entry into South Korea" What kind of performance will the various smart investment platforms have?

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