New Deal Introduces Domestic Photovoltaic Subsidy to Fall 40% Within Two Years

“The current PV subsidies are still available, but the profitability of power plant investors is not big.” Mr. Zhu, a senior PV module company executive, has great feelings for the subsidies for photovoltaic power plants. At the beginning of February, relevant departments again promulgated the New Deal on the integration of photovoltaic buildings. Substantial reductions in the amount of subsidies have caused many concerns for the PV market. According to the "First Financial Daily", according to the amount of subsidy issued under the New Deal, China's subsidy quota has fallen by about 40% within two years.

Subsidy fell sharply The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently launched the "Declaration of Solar Photovoltaic Building Application Projects in 2011", and the total installed capacity of each province does not exceed 10 MW in principle. If calculated according to 32 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, this policy will start a 320 MW project.

Zhao Yuwen, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, once predicted that China's installed capacity in 2011 is estimated to be between 500 megawatts and 700 megawatts. Assuming that the new photoelectric construction project will be completed in the same year, it will account for 45% of China's newly installed capacity.

Compared with similar policies in 2009 and 2010, the subsidy policy this year has not changed much, but the actual subsidy rate has rapidly declined.

In 2009, the subsidy standard for China's building materials and other optoelectronic building integration projects was no more than 20 yuan per watt. The ceiling for subsidies in 2010 was 17 yuan per watt.

In 2011, the new policy pointed out that for crystalline silicon components, grid-connected inverters, and energy-storage lead-acid batteries and other key equipment, 50% of the supply price for the bid-winning agreement will be subsidized, and other costs such as the installation of demonstration projects will be installed. The standard is set at 6 yuan per watt.

“In the previous two years, the project installation cost subsidies have not been calculated separately,” said Dongfang Securities researcher Zou Hui. Mr. Zhu pointed out that according to the current price of 156 square millimeters of photovoltaic modules, which is calculated at 12 yuan/watt, the subsidy granted by the country for photovoltaic projects this year is about 12 yuan/watt (50% for 12 yuan/watt, plus 6 yuan for engineering subsidies). / W) This is a 40% drop from 2009.

Mr. Zhu said that the drop in the amount of subsidies indicates that the cost of the industry chain is also continuously decreasing. In 2009, the module's selling price was about 15 yuan/W or more, and it was almost the same in 2010 and 2009. Therefore, after the subsidy rate fell in 2011, the module price will continue to dive.

Profitability Challenges In November 2010, the Ministry of Finance cancelled subsidies for a total of 54 megawatts and 39 Gold Sun projects. Famous companies such as Suntech Power, Artes and BP were impressively listed.

“I'll give you an account. At present, the investment of a photovoltaic power plant project is about 28 yuan/watt, even if the local and national subsidies come out at 18 yuan/watt, the company builds itself at 10 yuan/watt. The 1 watt battery is for 1 year. For a degree of power generation, it takes 10 years to recover the cost, and it is better to build a power station than to sell a battery.A 50 megawatt battery production line may be built in one year, and it can be returned and profitable in 2 to 3 years. It can explain why many projects will be put on hold for a long time even if they have subsidies,” Mr Zhu told reporters.

The test for photovoltaic power plants now comes from several aspects: First, although the state has subsidies, local government subsidies are difficult to achieve. In addition to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, where there is a certain amount of financial support, it is difficult for many local governments to implement supporting subsidies.

Second, the price of PV modules, which account for 50% of the cost of power plant investment, may be difficult to drop rapidly. Each 1% increase in conversion efficiency of photovoltaic modules may result in a price reduction of about 10%. However, within two years, many PV module manufacturers could not significantly increase their conversion efficiency. As a result, the rate of component price cuts may not be as fast as the reduction in government subsidies. In this way, it is not easy for PV investors to make money.

In addition, the overseas market is relatively good, which also makes PV module companies unwilling to cut prices.

In Germany, although the government reduced the subsidy by about 20% in 2010, the subsidy for roof power generation from 30 kW to 100 kW is still as high as 0.26 EUR/kWh to 0.29 EUR/kWh, which is higher than China's subsidy. A large part.

Mr. Liu, another person in charge of the construction of photovoltaic power plants, said that although many photovoltaic cell factories in China have already been shortlisted for the procurement list of power station projects, they can use the words “no goods” or “too late to do it” to plug it out. Transferred goods to Germany and other places, after all, the price is higher than the local Chinese purchase price.

Mr. Zhu also emphasized that building photovoltaic power plants in China is not totally unprofitable. Many subsidized photovoltaic power plant projects are mainly photovoltaic manufacturers “self-use”. Assuming that the electricity price is about RMB 1/kWh, if the peak electricity price in the summer reaches RMB 1.9/kWh, the power station investor will save a lot of electricity. However, if the photovoltaic power station is sold to the grid at a desulfurization price of about 0.4 yuan/kWh, it may lose money.