Standard Bank: Short-term ** is price or further consolidation

The Standard Bank stated that the credit rating of the United States has been lowered and the underlying metal market has been affected by further consolidation. However, the weakness of the US dollar, supply shortages and any signs of QE3 support are supported by the base metals, but speculative buying is mostly seen.

Standard Bank released the base metal daily on August 12th, saying that the base metals are still under pressure, especially given that the U.S. credit rating was downgraded, prices could be further corrected in the short term, but the dollar weakened and supplies were damaged, giving some support, and any QE3 introduction The possibilities provide overall support for the commodity market.

On the one hand, we still believe that the upward movement of base metals is limited. On the other hand, due to the fact that copper prices are lower than US$8,500/ton, Asian buying is gaining momentum. The underlying metal market still has better support factors. LME/SFE arbitrage window is occasionally Open the same for support. However, most of the current buying interest is still speculative rather than a rebound in sustainability, and the trend is expected to continue.

After the 194,725 tonnes of aluminum registered warehouse receipts rose during the period, aluminum was supported and was located above USD 2,400/t. A similar situation occurred at the end of July and was not expected. In the current environment, regardless of whether the real aluminum prices have actually risen, the fundamentals of the aluminum market itself have been increasing in the short-term.

Demand for the base metal market in the Chinese market continues to rise. Demand growth exceeds output growth. Due to high raw material prices and energy costs, smelter profit margins decline. The direct result is the decline in the aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for 3 months. The increase in the contract price of the contract caused a new round of buying interest in the Shanghai Aluminum futures contract. As the price rose to a three-year high, the number of open interest contracts suddenly rose.