The robot industry chain will gradually become complete in the next few years, and high-speed growth will still be maintained. Especially in the core component industry, it will undergo a quantitative change to a qualitative change. In the next three to five years, large-scale integration will occur in various industrial chain links. Shuffle, opportunities will also be brewing. From the perspective of investment, how to look at the entrepreneurial opportunities of service robots, at this stage, the products will be significantly differentiated, which not only includes the unique product capabilities of sports, intelligence, decision-making, but also the pain points in the unique scene. . The inflection point of consumer service robots will not come in the next two to three years The robot will have more than 6 billion US dollars in 2020, that is, the scale of 340 billion yuan, of which more than two-thirds are used in the industrial sector, and the consumption is about 2 billion. This figure shows a problem. First of all, this is a relatively large industry, tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of industries. At the same time, its growth rate is still a process of steady growth. What do we mean? We predict that the whole will be in the next two or three years. The inflection point of the consumer service robot is not necessarily coming. Once this happens, it may not be a size of 2 billion, but this turning point will come sooner or later. Industrial robot appeals are becoming more apparent Looking at the industrial robots, there are several elements of industrial robots, from the perspective of investment and forecasting, such as policy support, regulatory protection, including the entire manufacturing industry, the pressure of GDP growth in recent years and the entire Chinese manufacturing industry. The demand for upgrading is urgent, and the appeal of this piece is obvious, and the entire country, including policies and other guiding support, can be seen. Lenovo itself is also a manufacturing company. We have our own core circuits, assemblies, and a wide range of production capacities and equipment. This piece of labor cost change is a big driving factor. Many automation things have already happened since the 1950s and 1960s. In the end, in an emerging manufacturing powerhouse like China, more is an economic account. See where you can replace manpower. For example, today we associate many of the manufacturing plants, the automation rate is already above 50%, and some production lines can reach 70%-80%. In the future, we hope to further improve it by machine vision, similar to packaging and assembly. It may be more difficult, and the cost of using a robot replacement will be higher. In fact, with the improvement of economic level and education level, it is very important. With the mobile Internet bringing a lot of new labor-intensive opportunities such as sharing economy, it makes the entire manufacturing industry labor cost and recruitment difficulty, including maintaining employment. The scale has become very difficult. Today, any manufacturing company will have such pain points. These driving forces are very obvious. The industrial robot industry is also fully applicable to the smile curve. At both ends, such as key core components and the final industry application, there will be higher technology, industry thresholds and corresponding profits. In the whole body of the whole machine, there are some giants in the current industry, and the competition and situation in the middle and low end are very serious. The core component base industry is far from high performance applications We look at the two ends of the smile curve, the key components are very interesting industries, especially the reducer, servo motor, controller account for more than 60% of the entire manufacturing cost, especially the reducer, we are in the industry. Very familiar, only two or three companies in Germany and Japan are doing very well. When we go to visit, they put all their machines and parameters out, including one model when they go, all in plastic. One of the simulations, many things are open, but it involves the entire basic industry and precision manufacturing, materials industry and many other basic industries, even if it opens the entire design is difficult to copy, to achieve the same high-performance industry At the application level, this road is still very long. But in system integration, because of the upgrade of China's industry, with a large number of user cases and the needs of some industries, this piece will have more opportunities. According to these, there are several directions worth seeing. For example, human-machine collaboration, the current application is more in the automobile manufacturing industry, and in some aspects it is basically fully automatic. In the future, with the increase in labor costs we just talked about, these industries will gradually mature in application. In the future, there will be more and more applications in the 3C industry. In the process of the rise of traditional manufacturing in the past 20 years, China has done a lot of things. There are many links that will be gradually automated and robotized. This will involve human-machine collaboration, not pure man-machine production. The second domestic autonomy has already been mentioned. There are still some core technologies in key parts and components. Enterprises have been brave enough to try to manufacture and produce core parts. Recently, there has been a trade war. The first step is the chip industry, which is at key zero. This part of the component is also a potential opportunity. The last piece of networking is more interesting. We have been talking about 5G. In addition to commercial applications, it is very much used in the Internet of Things. The relatively high bandwidth makes multi-robot collaboration and smart factories gradually become possible, along with these technologies. Mature, multi-robot collaborative, fully intelligent factory networked robot applications will gradually emerge. In general, we feel that China's big trend, the industry chain will gradually become complete in the next few years, high-speed growth will still be maintained, and the accumulation of many years in the past, especially in the core components, will undergo quantitative changes to qualitative changes. It is believed that in the next three to five years, large-scale integration and reshuffle will occur in various industrial chain links. Opportunities will also be brewing. Where is the robot's tera-scale opportunity? The service robot is a big story. Everyone feels great. I think it should be a trillion-level market. The common problem is where the trillions will appear. We look at the demand side is very obvious, the improvement of living standards, the improvement of the purchasing power of the entire middle class, making everyone willing to spend more money to buy some automated home service robots, sweeping robot is a beginning. The second is the change in demographic structure. The emergence of aging things makes the robots including domestic services and medical services a relatively large potential market opportunity. The third piece is the whole culture and entertainment, including the maturity of IP copyright. Nowadays, many of the better-selling entertainment robots are basically bundled with IP, and the future will be combined with education and entertainment from IP to content. This robot will have a big chance. In the last piece, the rise in labor costs will make the entire demand around education, aging or consumption upgrades urgent. Robot Status: Pad+ Wheels What is the status quo today? Because many of the talents and company backgrounds we use today are from the software and mobile Internet industries. So most of the software talents develop some applications on the Pad. Most of today's forms are Pad+ wheels, this is the status quo today. These things in some applications, such as the application of education in the industry, are early education machines, not robots that are usually imagined. This piece of the whole exercise ability is poor, so that the application will be very narrow and single, and it will not touch the real user's needs and pain points, there will be similar restrictions in various industries. In addition to the athletic ability, the development of the entire AI has just begun, how to embody smarter, visual and voice other human-computer interaction is a piece. The second is decision-making capabilities, including local decision-making capabilities, and more intelligent industry-based decision-making capabilities through cloud-based big data modeling. The third one is to move or interact with people, and the ability to deal with unexpected situations when performing tasks is very lacking, but we feel that with the local AI calculation, the AI ​​chip's computing power is improved. The evolution of the algorithm and the entire cloud to the 5G technology will be greatly improved, but this is the biggest bottleneck. Meet more scenarios and actual usage needs with versatile hardware How do we look at the development direction of this piece, the evolution of consumer robots in the future, certainly the most prominent entrepreneurs will do some more athletic ability, such as hexapod robot, with 19 degrees of freedom control, including using neural networks CNG, according to different surrounding environments, adjusts the force and posture of the degree of freedom in real time, so that it can have more athletic ability in various terrains and various complicated situations, and can open many new application scenarios. So what is the task diversification, because if the athletic ability and the intelligent ability reach a certain level, you can make it platform better, you can expand the ecology of the software through the ecology, similar to the ecology of the smart machine, or the developer. The ecology makes your versatile hardware meet more scenarios and actual usage needs. We believe that this intelligent path will be an important feature of the future of general-purpose consumer robots. SHENZHEN CHONDEKUAI TECHNOLOGY CO.LTD , http://www.siheyidz.com