Unmanned sensor industry chain and market trend analysis

Photocoupler

The development of intelligent driving will greatly increase the demand for sensors. Ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar and multi-camera systems have been applied in high-end vehicles; with the development of intelligent driving, the environment-aware technology will develop rapidly and further play a synergistic role. Although the sensor is only part of autonomous vehicles, the market prospects are very broad.

According to the statistics of the French authoritative market analysis agency Yole Développement, intelligent driving is mainly realized by cameras (long-distance camera, surround camera and stereo camera) and radar (ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar, lidar); the most advanced smart car With 17 sensors (only for autopilot), it is expected that 29 sensors will be reached by 2030.

According to the calculations of relevant foreign institutions (HIS/MarketsandMarketsResearch/PlunkedtResearch/MicroMarketMonitor, etc.) and our judgment, it is expected that by 2020, the global automotive camera, millimeter wave radar and night vision system will enter the rapid growth period.

Sensor technology roadmap and related autopilot features

Among them, the car camera: the market size in 2015 is 6.2 billion yuan, and will reach 13.3 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%;

Millimeter wave radar: In 2015, the market size was 22.9 billion yuan, and it will reach 57.6 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%;

Night Vision System: In 2015, the market size was RMB 29.3 billion. In 2020, it will reach RMB 51.4 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 12%.

Market size of global sensors

Camera: the eye of smart driving

The car camera is the basis for many early warning and recognition-like ADAS functions. Among the many ADAS functions, the visual image processing system is more basic and more intuitive for the driver, and the camera is the basis of the visual image processing system, so the in-vehicle camera is essential for intelligent driving. Lane departure warning (LDW), forward collision warning (FCW), traffic sign recognition (TSR), lane keeping assist (LKA), pedestrian collision warning (PCW), panoramic parking (SVP), driver fatigue warning and many other functions Can be achieved with the help of a camera, and some functions can only be achieved through the camera.

Camera-enabled ADAS function

Car camera prices continue to fall, and future multi-cameras will become a trend. The cost of the camera is relatively low, and the price has continued to fall from more than 300 yuan in 2010. By 2014, the price of a single camera has dropped to around 200 yuan. Compared with sensors such as on-board radars, the price is lower and it is easy to popularize applications. Tesla's Autopilot 2.0 hardware system includes eight cameras, and future multi-cameras will become a trend. The camera is installed in different locations depending on the requirements of the different ADAS functions. According to the installation position of the camera, it can be divided into four parts: front view, side view, rear view and built-in. To achieve the full set of ADAS functions in the future, bicycles must be equipped with at least 5 cameras.

Car camera prices continue to fall

The forward-looking camera is the most frequently used, and a single camera can perform multiple functions. Through algorithm development and optimization, a single forward-looking camera can achieve multiple functions, such as driving record, lane departure warning, forward collision warning, pedestrian recognition and so on. In the future, it is also expected to achieve more ADAS functions through algorithm integration. The forward-looking camera is typically a wide-angle lens mounted on the interior rear view mirror or at a higher position on the front windshield to achieve a farther effective distance. Tesla's Autopilot 2.0 hardware system has three front-view cameras, which are normal, telephoto, and wide-angle cameras. The three cameras cover longer distances and wider field of view. The accuracy of detection is also greatly improved. . Tesla's approach is also expected to be followed by later.

Side view cameras instead of rear view mirrors will become a trend. Since the range of the rear view mirror is limited, when another car behind the slope is outside this range, it is "stealth", and the part outside this range is called a blind spot. Because of the existence of blind spots, the probability of traffic accidents is greatly increased. The side view camera can be installed on both sides of the vehicle to cover the blind spot. When a vehicle enters the blind spot, the driver is automatically alerted. This is the blind spot monitoring system.

There is also a new trend, which is to replace the rearview mirror with a side-view wide-angle camera, which can reduce the wind resistance and at the same time obtain a larger and wider viewing angle, avoiding accidents in dangerous blind spots. BMW i8 Mirrorless concept car It is designed in this way. Japan has also revised and amended the regulations to allow vehicles without mirrors to go on the road, encouraging the use of side-view cameras to replace the rear-view mirrors. The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has recently promised to amend the regulations and cancel vehicles without mirrors. limit. We believe that the side view camera can replace the rear view mirror not only to reduce the wind resistance, but also to cover the blind spot, which is safer and will become a development trend in the future.

Car rearview mirror blind zone

The panoramic parking system calls multiple cameras around the body to help the car open the "God view." The panoramic parking system collects the images around the vehicle through a plurality of super wide-angle cameras installed around the vehicle body, and then corrects and splices them through the image processing unit to form a panoramic top view of a pair of vehicles, which is transmitted to the display device of the center console in real time. on. When the driver is sitting in the car, he can visually see the location of the vehicle and the obstacles of the vehicle's weekly report. It can easily stop the parking or pass through the complicated road surface, effectively reducing the occurrence of accidents such as scraping and collision.

Image stitching technology for panoramic parking system

The car camera is widely used and relatively inexpensive, and is the most basic and most common sensor. The market space in the future will exceed RMB 10 billion. The camera is indispensable for multiple ADAS functions, and the unit price is expected to continue to fall in the future, which will drive the space of the car camera market to grow rapidly. According to HIS estimates, global vehicle camera shipments will increase from 28 million in 2014 to 83 million in 2020, a compound growth rate of 20%. Based on this estimate, the global car camera market will grow from 6.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 13.3 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 16%. The consumer areas are mainly in the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific and other places, of which the Asia Pacific region will become the fastest growing market.

Car camera market size forecast

It is estimated that the demand for domestic car cameras will reach 42 million in 2020, and the market scale will reach more than 6 billion yuan. In 2015, the demand for domestic car cameras was about 13 million. The simple measurement of the size of the domestic car camera market is as follows:

1) Assuming that Taiwan's passenger car sales maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5%, passenger car sales will reach 26.99 million by 2020;

2) Assume that by 2020, the forward-looking camera (1) has a permeability of nearly 40%; the side-view camera (2) has a penetration rate of 20%; the rear-view camera (1) has a penetration rate of 50%; and the built-in camera (1) ) is 5%;

3) Considering the huge domestic car ownership, the aftermarket can not be ignored. Assuming that the rear mount only considers the front-view camera (1) and the rear-view camera (1), the penetration rate is 10%, then the aftermarket will add more than 4 million new demands each year. Based on the above assumptions, it can be estimated that by 2020, the domestic car camera market will have an additional demand of about 42 million. According to the unit price of RMB 160, the market size will reach RMB 6.7 billion.

2020 domestic car camera market demand measurement

The camera industry chain mainly consists of a lens group, a CMOS (Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor), a DSP (Digital Signal Process), and a module package. In recent years, the rapid growth of smartphones has driven the booming of the camera market, but since 2014, the growth rate of smartphones has slowed down, and the future growth rate of mobile phone cameras will also slow down. With the rise of the in-vehicle camera market, the production capacity of all aspects of the mobile phone camera industry chain will shift to the in-vehicle camera industry. It is expected that the industrial chain links such as CMOS, lens and module packaging will continue to maintain high growth in the future.

Car camera industry chain

CMOS is the core component of the camera and is widely used in car cameras. CMOS is the photosensitive element of the camera. Compared with CCD (Charge-coupled Device), the imaging quality of the photosensitive element is slightly worse, but the cost is lower and the power is saved. It is applied in the field of in-vehicle cameras with low pixel requirements. Very extensive. In addition, CMOS has two important advantages over CCD:

1) Fast speed. The CMOS photoelectric sensor can take out the electrical signal while acquiring the optical signal, and can simultaneously process the image information of each unit at a faster speed than the CCD charge coupler. The high-performance CMOS camera can capture images up to 5,000 frames per second.

2) High dynamic range. When the vehicle is driving at high speeds, the lighting conditions change drastically and frequently, and COMS can quickly identify surrounding objects even in environments with large differences in brightness. CMOS value accounts for about one-third of the cost of the camera, and is basically controlled by foreign brands. Sony, Samsung and OmniVision have a market share of more than 60%.

Sony has the largest market share in the global CMOS sensor field. With its deep technology in CMOS and the acquisition of Toshiba image sensor business, Sony's market share is expected to expand further. The CMOS market is basically controlled by foreign brands, and the domestic brands have a weak voice. OmniVision is one of the major shareholders of Jingfang Technology, a domestic CMOS packaging company, and a major customer of Jingfang Technology. Therefore, Crystal Technology is expected to benefit from the significant increase in CMOS demand.

2015 CMOS market share

The lens is also an important part of the camera, and domestic independent brand enterprises have obvious advantages. According to the TSR research report, among the global camera lens manufacturers in 2015, the shipment of Taiwanese company Dali Optoelectronics remained the number one, accounting for about one-third of the global market share. Domestic Haoyu Optics surpassed Yujing with a slight advantage, ranking second. In the car camera lens market, Sunny Optical's lens shipments rank first in the world, with a market share of about 30%. It has entered the front-loading market of major car companies (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi).

Global camera lens manufacturer and market share (unit: %)

The assembly process of the vehicle camera module is complicated, and the market barriers are high, but domestic manufacturers have entered. Compared with consumer-grade electronics such as mobile phones, car cameras have high security requirements, more complex processes, and higher market barriers. Panasonic, Sony, Valeo, and Fujitsu-ten have a large share. The market concentration of the car camera module package is also higher than that of the mobile phone camera. Domestic Sunny Optical, Ou Feiguang and other manufacturers have the market share in the field of mobile phone camera packaging, and now they have fully entered the automotive camera module packaging manufacturing.

Global car camera module packager and share (unit: