Core Tip: As a leading force in the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, the new energy bus, coupled with its social attributes of public travel, has been the focus of attention in the industry in recent years. As the core market of new energy buses, the bus market has always been the focus of policy regulation and control, and it is the most competitive main battlefield. As the vanguard and "vanguard" of the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, new energy buses, together with their social attributes of public travel, have been the focus of attention in the industry in recent years. As the core market of new energy buses, the bus market has always been the focus of policy regulation and control, and it is the most competitive main battlefield. With the support and promotion of continuous favorable policies, in recent years, the new energy bus market has experienced explosive growth, especially in the rocket-like soaring in 2016, which is memorable. However, with the approaching target of 200,000 “ceilings†in 2020, the industry outlook has gradually become bleak. According to statistics, as of the end of 2017, the number of new energy buses has reached 165,000, accounting for the total number of buses. 27% of the 608,600 vehicles, and the cumulative output of new energy buses in 2017 reached 105,000. On November 27, 2017, the Ministry of Transport issued the “Opinions on Comprehensively Advancing the Development of Green Transportationâ€, stating that the number of new energy and clean energy vehicles in the transportation industry should reach 600,000 in 2020. On January 21, 2018, Liu Xiaoming, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Transport, once again emphasized this development goal in the industry forum. The promotion of new energy vehicles in the transportation sector has already achieved the goal of 300,000 vehicles during the 13th Five-Year Plan period by the end of 2017. The next promotion goal is to reach 600,000 by 2020. According to the predictions and assessments of relevant institutions, in the 600,000 vehicles, new energy buses should occupy half of the country. Then, the market expansion of 300,000, the new energy bus industry can sing the new "Kai Ge"? In the next three years, the new energy bus market can stand in the forefront, dominate the ups and downs? The new energy vehicle network slightly analyzes the above propositions and is only for industry evaluation. Since the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Prioritizing the Development of Public Transport" policy in 2012, up to now, 80% of the sales of new energy buses have come from the bus market, and the sales volume of new energy buses in this field has reached 89.8%. In 2012, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Giving Priority to the Development of Public Transportationâ€, clearly stating that buses, including taxis and urban transportation, are the main positions for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. In 2013, the Ministry of Transport issued an implementation opinion on the implementation of the “Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Urban Priority Development of Public Transportationâ€. In 2015, the Ministry of Transport issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in the Transportation Industryâ€, which proposed two indicators: First, to promote the creation of bus cities and create cities in 37 bus cities. In the newly added and replaced public transport vehicles, the proportion of new energy bus promotion is not less than 30%. Second, it is determined that by 2020, the whole industry will promote the application of 300,000 new energy vehicles, including 200,000 new energy buses. It includes a target of 100,000 vehicles including taxis and city-delivered logistics vehicles. Undoubtedly, with the support and promotion of continuous favorable policies, in recent years, the new energy bus market has experienced explosive growth, especially in the rocket-like soaring in 2016, which is memorable. Statistics show that the total sales volume of new energy buses reached 117,851 vehicles in 2016. Among them, the sales volume of new energy buses reached 99,011 vehicles, accounting for 84%, and the bus industry became the core market for new energy buses. By the end of 2016, the number of new energy buses had reached 165,000, accounting for 27% of the total bus capacity of 608,600. In 2017, the cumulative output of new energy buses will reach 105,000 units, achieving the goal of 200,000 units in the “13th Five-Year Plan†period in advance. It can be seen that as of now, more than 80% of the sales of new energy buses come from the bus market, and sales of new energy buses in this field account for 89.8%. While many car companies are narrowing the market and approaching the growth limit, the good news of the peak and the loop is coming one after another. The market expansion and prospects are promising, and industry confidence is being boosted. On November 27, 2017, the Ministry of Transport issued the “Opinions on Comprehensively Advancing the Development of Green Transportationâ€, stating that the number of new energy and clean energy vehicles in the transportation industry should reach 600,000 in 2020. On January 21, 2018, Liu Xiaoming, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Transport, once again emphasized this development goal in the industry forum. The promotion of new energy vehicles in the transportation sector has already achieved the goal of 300,000 vehicles during the 13th Five-Year Plan period by the end of 2017. The next promotion goal is to reach 600,000 by 2020. According to the predictions and assessments of relevant institutions, in the 600,000 vehicles, new energy buses should occupy half of the country. If the target of 300,000 vehicles is realized in the three years from 2018 to 2020, the annual increase in the number of new energy buses should be around 100,000 units, which is far beyond the industry's general estimate that the average number of new energy buses in the next few years should be 8 A forecast of around 10,000. Then, in the next three years, who can stand in the new energy bus market and dominate the ups and downs? Some experts pointed out that if the new energy bus industry was promoted by the government in the past few years, it should be an iterative period between the government and the market. In the midst of the tide, the ups and downs of industry enterprises are also competing for the green march of change and elimination. Driven by the dual engine, a new pattern of the industry is forming and emerging. According to statistics, in 2017, 86,767 new energy buses were sold domestically, down 24.41% year-on-year. Among them, the top 10 companies sold a total of 74,286 vehicles, and new energy buses accounted for 85.62%. Judging from the cumulative production from January to December 2017, Yutong Bus maintains its absolute superior position. It is the only company with a cumulative output of over 10,000 in 2017. The cumulative output of new energy buses is 24,722. The top three in 2017 were Yutong, BYD and Zhongtong, respectively, which were in line with the top three in 2016, but BYD ranked third in 2016, ranking second in 2017. Among them, BYD’s cumulative output of new energy buses from January to December was 8,688 units. The cumulative output of Zhongtong was 8,180 units. Although the top three rankings have changed slightly, the pattern of the top three new energy buses has been basically determined. If it is said that Yutong Bus is in the first echelon of new energy bus, BYD and Zhongtong are the second echelon, Zhuhai Yinlong (6321), CRRC (6019), Beiqi Futian (5011), Shanghai Shenlong (4702) Vehicles, Xiamen Golden Brigade (4,647 vehicles) is the third echelon. Compared with the 2016 industry rankings, Zhuhai Yinlong, ranked fourth in 2017, and Shanghai Shenlong, ranked seventh, are all new entrants in the top ten. Ankai Bus and Suzhou Jinlong are among the top ten, ranking in 2017 respectively. Eleven and fourteen. Especially worth mentioning is that as a new entrant of the top ten, the advancement of Zhuhai Yinlong and Shanghai Shenlong has become a powerful force to build a new pattern, all of which are eye-catching with the rapid development of the new energy bus market. In 2016, Yinlong electric bus sales exceeded 5,000 units, and sales orders in 2017 were close to 7,000 units. As of 2017, the capacity planning of several major Yinlong New Energy Industrial Parks has reached 136,000. According to the plan, the production capacity target for 2020 is 100,000 units. As far as it is concerned, the production capacity reserve should be more than enough. In March 2017, Shenlong Bus was acquired by Dongxu Optoelectronics, a well-known domestic listed company, and focused on the dual layout of the market and technology, which became the core driving force for its substantial growth. Judging from the cumulative growth rate, only one of the top 10 companies achieved positive growth, which is Shenlong Bus. In 2017, it sold 4,702 new energy buses for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 236.58%. It has won the top spot in the industry and its market share exceeds 5%. According to the analysis of the new energy vehicle network, Shenlong Bus has got rid of the troubles of funds, and the core technology and capacity expansion of the previous reserve are an important guarantee for the substantial growth of new energy bus sales in 2017. It can be said that "Dongxu solved the worries of Shenlong for Shenlong." As the insiders pointed out: "The domestic group only has industry, especially the automobile industry has no finance, no hematopoietic function, it is like a leukemia person, extremely vulnerable and vulnerable. The automobile industry is undergoing transformation, and there is urgent need for funds, no capital input. It will face a crisis." In summary, in 2017, the annual output of new energy buses exceeded 100,000 units, rewriting the pessimistic expectations of the industry at the beginning of the year, but it is expected that the concentrated outbreak in the last two months of 2017 will inevitably overdraw the market demand in 2018. With the substantial adjustment of the new energy subsidy policy, it is not impossible for the production and sales of 2018 pure electric buses to fall again. In addition, the policy impact of the new energy bus industry in the next few years will continue to weaken. According to the documents previously issued by the state, subsidies for new energy buses in addition to the fuel cell field will be completely withdrawn in 2020, regarding new energy commercial vehicles. Relevant point policies are also under discussion, which may help boost new energy buses out of policy as soon as possible and enter the demand-driven market stage. According to the analysis of the new energy vehicle network, there is no doubt that market expansion will bring huge market opportunities to the new energy bus industry. However, with the substantial decline in subsidies, the cost pressure and market competition of enterprises will be further aggravated. The challenge of the board will also be huge. With financial capital as the core or background, innovative technology and changing business models are becoming a new path for automakers to become stronger and bigger. We are looking forward to seeing that new energy bus companies have demonstrated their superior market competitiveness under the dual engine of policy and market.
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